Five Things to Start Your Week

Welcome Investors!

Our Alpha Portfolio is at +9.82% YTD.

• Leading: Silver at +41%

• Lagging: Vipshop Holdings at -15.1%

Market Snapshot

Contrasting sectoral and regional trends.

In technology, Taiwan's TSMC fell by 2.69%, indicating some cooling in semiconductor demand, while Japan’s Toyota surged 4.10%, likely supported by resilient demand in the automotive sector and growth in EV production.

SAP in Germany gained 4.92%, signalling strength in software, perhaps due to steady enterprise IT investments in Europe.

Financials show mixed performance; while India’s ICICI Bank (+5.08%) and HDFC Bank (+1.11%) continued to see positive momentum, reflecting strength in emerging markets, Canada’s Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) fell sharply by 11.57%, signalling possible regional pressures in North American banking.

In commodities, Vale of Brazil gained 1.88% on stable mining demand, while Australia’s BHP edged up by 1.15%.

However, South African miners like Gold Fields and Harmony Gold struggled, down 5.32% and 6.48%, respectively, likely affected by fluctuating precious metals prices and operational challenges in the region.

In pharmaceuticals, Novo Nordisk in Denmark was up 0.62%, maintaining its strength amid global demand for its diabetes and weight-loss drugs.

Macro Trade Idea

Long Japanese Automotive and Indian Financials

• Long Toyota (TM +4.10%): Japanese automakers are benefiting from robust global demand for vehicles, especially with the shift toward EVs. Toyota’s strength could reflect continued optimism for its diversified offerings in both conventional and electric vehicles.

• Long ICICI Bank (IBN +5.08%): Strong growth in India’s financial sector reflects ongoing economic resilience, making ICICI Bank a prime candidate for long exposure in emerging markets.

On the Move

Energy stocks slumped as Israel’s attack on Iran was more restrained than expected. This raises the prospect of easing hostilities in the region. Stocks rise and bonds fall.

Drilling contractor Noble is falling 2.6%, while Permian Resources, EOG Resources and Halliburton are all down 2% or more and Exxon Mobil is 1.8% lower. Airline stocks are benefiting, with American, United and Delta all up about 2.5%.

This Week’s Alpha Picks

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Oil Rebound

Oil rebounded as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held meetings with top aides to discuss the next attack on Iran, following the explosion of a drone next to his private residence. Israel expanded its bombing campaign in Lebanon to hit financial centres it says helped fund Hezbollah.

Newsworthy

This is what’s caught our eye over the weekend.

• An Indian pharma company is sending Nvidia chips to Russia at war

• Crypto’s ‘too big to fail’ token Tether faces new threat from US

• Private equity hipsters are coming for your favourite apps