πŸ“ˆ Alpha Picks & Market Update

22nd of April, 2024

Welcome Investors!

Here’s your Alpha portfolio update for the week:

  • Returns so far this year +1.3%

  • Our leading position is in Silver, currently at +20.2% while our position in Brunswick Corp is lagging, at -5.4%

  • Total positions: 18
    See the investment portfolio for the rest of our positions.

The Week at a Glance

Market Snapshot

  • Stock markets continued their correction last week, with some firm economic data unable to counter the reality that rate cuts are not coming as soon or aggressively as previously thought.

    • The S&P 500 fell -3.2% by late Friday.

    • Technology, consumer discretionary and communication services posted the deepest declines alongside some steep selloffs from the likes of Netflix.

    • Nasdaq closed the week at -6.11%.

  • We were wrong when we said last week: We believe the market will open lower, only to close the week on a positive.

    • βœ”οΈ The market opened lower.

    • ❌ Did not close the week on a positive.

    • We mentioned last month that we expect a 5% to 8% decline to be a normal correction. Once that threshold is breached, only then we will reassess our bullish bias.

    • We will continue to monitor the market and post updates in the Telegram channel.

  • Where is the strength? These industries stand out:

    • Non-ferrous Metals (same as last week)

    • Aluminium

    • Airlines

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S&P 500 vs Other Sectors

(relative to the S&P 500 index, year-ago = 100; dashed line = 200-day MA)

S&P 500 in Election Years

Previous election years that started off strong (above 5% or more within the first 3 months) tended to weaken into early June.

We believe the markets are following this pattern where we have weakness heading into the summer.

But there will be a buy point, this does not look like an exit.

Despite Friday's SPX weakness, 68% of the Russell 3000 advanced on the day. That's a large divergence between external (price) and internal (constituents) readings.

What to expect?
  • The S&P 500 lost 50-day moving average. This is a short-term bearish signal.

  • The market is still above $4,950, which we mentioned would be the last support area to maintain the bullish market structure.

  • Based on multiple bullish and bearish signals, it seems the long-term bias is still the strongest in the market. We’ll hold our positions and continue looking for buying opportunities.

IM Trading Desk

The following companies are on our watchlist for trade opportunities. We are looking for long entry on these with 15-20% stop-loss per trade.

  • ZUO

  • UAL

  • GPC

  • DJT

  • CGC

Thank you for being a part of The Insider Memo community.

Remember, investing is not just about wealth; it's about making informed decisions that shape your future.

Have a great week!

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